Peer-Reviewed Book:
- Manning, C., Smith, I. & Tuncel, O. 2023. Parties, politics, peace: Electoral inclusion as peacebuilding. Routledge.
Abstract
Parties, Politics, Peace: Electoral Inclusion as Peacebuilding tries to understand post-conflict parties as political actors and especially to understand their role in the longer-term processes of state-building and peacebuilding. This work will be the first book-length, large-N comparative study to systematically explore the empirical record of participation and performance in electoral politics by political parties formed out of armed insurgencies in the era of “liberal peacebuilding.” The project is informed by our analysis of an original dataset tracking the formation, participation, and performance of electoral parties by former armed insurgent groups. The original data covers all civil wars ending in 1990 or later and includes conflicts that vary in duration, intensity, incompatibility, and several other factors. The book uses a multi-method approach, beginning with a quantitative analysis of post-insurgent party formation and plotting the electoral performance of these parties over time. The book finds consistent patterns in electoral performance over time and sets out to explore the meaning and importance of these patterns through several different small-n comparative analyses. This book is written for an academic audience (scholars in the field and graduate students), but we also expect that non-academic audiences can also read and benefit from the book.
Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles:
- Tuncel, O. 2024. Talking to elites: A guide for novice interviewers. Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, 22(1), 53-60.
Abstract
Elite interviewing is one of the most useful tools in any political scientist’s toolbox when we want to understand elites’ decision making process, yet, the lack of trusted guide for novice interviewers poses great problems in garnering insider information. This paper offers suggestions for graduate students, junior faculty, and faculty new to interviewing for making the most effective use of the qualitative elite interviewing. It proposes what the researcher should be aware of before and after the interview. It discusses and puts forward concrete advice addressing a wide range of issues including but not limited to arranging interviews, positionality of the researcher, and organization of interviews and preparation. The information is based on the author’s own experience of interviewing politicians, government officials, and political party leaders. - Manning, C., Smith, I. & Tuncel, O. 2024. Rebels with a cause: Introducing the Post-Rebel Electoral Parties Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 61(2), 294-303.
Abstract
The Post-Rebel Electoral Parties (PREP) dataset provides longitudinal data on the electoral participation and performance in national elections of political parties formed by armed opposition groups after civil war. Post-rebel electoral parties sit at the center of overlapping research agendas that address how best to build durable peace, and how to build resilient political systems and capable states after devastating conflict. A better understanding of how and why these parties participate in and perform in elections over time is critical to any assessment of liberal peacebuilding. These parties – their strategic choices, organizational development, and impact on the political systems in which they participate – are also relevant to the broader study of comparative democratization, political parties, and party systems. Our dataset follows these parties forward through up to three decades of participation in post-war electoral politics. The current version of the data consists of 77 distinct PREP actors derived from 56 conflict actors. The data cover 321 legislative election years and 215 executive elections in 39 countries over 30 years. This article describes the data and articulates the need for and motivation behind the dataset. We then offer some illustrations of its relevance for advancing research in the study of post-conflict politics. - Tuncel, O. 2023. Selective inclusion under competitive autocratic regimes: An example from the Turkish educational civil society. Journal of Civil Society, 19(2), 232-250. Free e-print (limited to 50 links)
Abstract
This article attempts to explain the role of the educational civil society in Turkey from 2003 to 2012, where the regime excessively co-opts and controls associational life while maintaining a veneer of nominal compliance with democratic values. While existing studies fail to explain how the state interacts with these organizations during regime transitions, this research addresses this gap by adopting two educational policy periods as a case study. Thus, it shows the role of civil society under competitive autocratic regimes and which mechanisms the state uses in its shifting approach to civil society organizations in policymaking. This article claims that the state co-opts government-friendly civil society organizations and alters existing laws and regulations of educational institutions to keep the facade of democracy. Competitive autocratic state structure and its limited capacity, however, compel the regime to include different civil society organizations into the policymaking. Additionally, these organizations’ extensive knowledge and expertise are indispensable and invaluable resources the state needs to implement policies. Based on elite interviews of state officials and civil society organizations, and extensive document research, this article presents crucial insights on how competitive autocratic regimes adapt their approach to civil society. - Tuncel, O. & Manning, C. 2023. Building democracy after war? Post-rebel electoral parties and the construction of stable party systems. Party Politics, 29(6), 1039-1050.
Abstract
Since 1990, multilateral organizations have invested in the idea that multiparty political systems are an essential part of building durable peace, and that former insurgents must be converted to political actors. To what extent does this foster longer term democracy and stability? In this paper, we focus on the role of electoral inclusion for post-rebel parties in the creation of stable party systems as one feature that supports both democratization and durable peace. We find that political integration of former insurgents in electoral politics not only serves the short-term purpose of bringing such groups “inside the tent” and smoothing the transition from war to peace. It also lays a foundation for the creation of stable party systems. We test our propositions with an original dataset and offer explanatory analysis of small set of parties. - Tuncel, O. 2017. AKP dönemi eğitim politikalarına ilişkin bir örnek: Değerler eğitimi. (An example from education policies of the AKP period: Values education). Kültür ve Siyasette Feminist Yaklaşımlar, 33, 3-26. (in Turkish)
Book Chapters:
- McCoy, J., Gomez Cruces, J. S., Tuncel, O., & Littvay, L. (2025). Reducing partisan animus in populist contexts: Limitations of shared common humanity and perspective-taking interventions. In Angelos Chryssogelos, Eliza Tanner Hawkins, Kirk A. Hawkins, Levente Littvay, and Nina Wiesehomeier (Eds.) The ideational approach to populism, Volume II: Consequences and mitigation. Routledge.
Abstract
This chapter explores mechanisms to reduce the partisan animus of populist polarization that threatens democracy. A large survey experiment in the U.S. tests the impact of two common inter-group conflict interventions on reducing affective polarization: stimulating a sense of common humanity and stimulating perspective-taking. The treatments produced few significant results across a range of measures of affective polarization. The chapter therefore uses a holistic content analysis of the text responses to identify whether the null results were a problem with treatment design or a breakdown of the mechanisms in a political context. We found the Common Humanity treatment worked as expected: participants exhibited feelings and/or behaviors of compassion. Nevertheless, this social psychological mechanism was simply not powerful enough to reduce out-party dislike and bias. The Perspective-Taking treatment mechanism broke down because people simply could not envision the case where they might change their own political identity. In this case, the responses were also moderated by the intensity of partisan identity. The chapter shows that affective partisan polarization in a populist context is very difficult to change with common inter-group conflict interventions, and it proposes long-term interventions to stimulate the theorized mechanisms, as well as addressing the substantive grievances and perceptions of elite violations of core cultural and democratic norms fueling populism. - Manning, C. & Tuncel, O. 2023. Peacebuilding and democracy after war: Taking stock. In John W. Harbeson and Donald Rothchild (Eds.) Africa in World Politics: Sustaining Reform in a Turbulent World Order. 7th edition. Routledge.
Abstract
This chapter explores the implications of liberal peacebuilding in Sub-Saharan Africa since the end of the Cold War in 1989, focusing on the electoral inclusion of former armed opposition groups. In nearly all cases of civil wars ending in this era, armed opposition groups have been invited to form political parties, and the majority of armed opposition groups did so. Using a dataset that tracks rebel groups that form parties at the end of civil conflict and participate in electoral politics, this chapter shows that most such parties have accepted participation in electoral politics as an essential part of their political strategies and have continued to participate over time. Unfortunately, commitment to electoral politics does not mean that they are committed democrats. The chapter examines some of the African post-rebel parties in detail and shows that electoral politics enabled competing elites to manage conflict successfully in most cases, but that the electoral inclusion for these armed actors has rarely been transformative. These groups either gained power and became dominant ruling parties, remained marginal political actors, or returned to armed conflict.
Policy Papers and Other Publication:
- Tuncel, O., Manning, C., & Smith, I. 2022. Political integration and post-war elections. In the Political Dynamics of DDR Series. The Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA).
- McCoy, J., Press, B., Somer, M., & Tuncel, O. 2022, May 05. Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization. Carnegie.
- Bakan, R. & Tuncel, O. 2019, July 04. Women’s struggle in Turkey. Yale Global.
Under Review
Selected Working Papers
Work-In-Progress
- Authoritarian control through trusteeship: The case of Kayyum in Turkey and implications for comparative authoritarianism. journal article (with Elif Sari Genc)
- Backsliding and the closing civil society space. journal article (with Kelsey Martin-Morales)
- Partisanship, political knowledge, and impeachment attitudes in the US. journal article (with Flavia Batista da Silva)
- Do opposites attract? Evidence from a conjoint experiment on Turkish political party coalitions. journal article
- Why do autocratic incumbents form pre-electoral coalitions? journal article
- Electoral coordination of post-rebel electoral parties. journal article
- Can peace survive the party-state? journal article (with Carrie Manning)
